England’s schools began 2025 with a paradox. Vacancy rates climbed to record levels in late winter and spring, yet by mid-year hiring intent cooled as budgets tightened and some local enrollment projections fell. The net result is a labour market that remains structurally short of specialists, above all in secondary STEM and in roles linked to special educational needs, while the broad churn of 2022–2023 has eased. This article brings together the latest evidence, asks what the new funding could plausibly change within 12 months, and sets out low-cost retention moves leaders can implement this term.
What the latest data shows
The National Foundation for Educational Research’s 2025 annual report describes a system still under strain. Recruitment to initial teacher training remains below target in most secondary subjects, leaving schools with unfilled posts at the highest rates since consistent records began. One headline finding is stark: unfilled teacher vacancies are around six times higher than before the pandemic, with increased reliance on non-specialists in disadvantaged areas.
Key point. Record vacancy rates in early 2025 turned staffing shortages from a background worry into a timetable-blocking constraint.
In response, the Department for Education announced a £233 million package for the 2025–26 recruitment cycle, including tax-free bursaries of up to £29,000 and scholarships up to £31,000 in shortage subjects such as mathematics, physics, chemistry and computing. Targeted retention payments are also in scope.
Key point. New money is most effective when it is focused on shortage subjects and early-career support rather than spread thinly.
Mid-year monitoring from the Gatsby-funded Teacher Tapp and SchoolDash work added nuance: job-advert activity in secondary fell compared with last year and with pre-pandemic norms, and a sizeable share of heads expected to employ fewer staff next year because of budget pressure and a projected dip in rolls in some areas. That eases headline churn, but it does not magic physics teachers into existence.
Key point. The problem has shifted shape. There is less general churn, yet deeper subject bottlenecks remain.
A further lens is subject coverage. The Institute of Physics reported in September that roughly a quarter of state secondaries lack a dedicated physics teacher, with non-specialist teaching affecting hundreds of thousands of pupils, especially in deprived areas. The need is not for generic recruitment drives, but for targeted pipelines and retention of scarce specialists.
Key point. Where non-specialists deliver physics at scale, pupil pathways into STEM narrow long before post-16 choices.
Where are shortages most acute in 2025?
Three hotspots recur across datasets and school reports:
- Secondary STEM. Physics, maths and computing face powerful external labour-market pull. Schools compete with sectors offering higher pay and clearer progression. Targeted bursaries, subject knowledge enhancement (SKE), and specialist mentoring show the strongest evidence of improving both recruitment and two-year retention.
- SEND-related roles. Hard-to-fill specialist posts in support and inclusion raise teacher workload and attrition when left vacant, even if the headline number of classroom teachers stabilises. Evidence streams are thinner here, but the pattern is consistent across NFER summaries and parliamentary submissions.
- Rural and coastal schools. Travel time, housing, and fewer local training partners complicate pipelines. The remedies are not only financial: partnerships with regional ITT providers and guaranteed mentoring capacity matter.
Key point. Subject-specific incentives and structured support beat generic offers when external pay competition is intense.
What could 2025 measures change within 12 months?
Policy lags matter. Incentive uplifts influence the next ITT round more than next term’s timetable. The School Teachers’ Review Body and NFER both warn that pay alone cannot deliver sustainable supply, while also stressing that competitiveness is a prerequisite for any wider plan. The practical route is a two-track approach: immediate retention for current staff, and medium-term pipelines for entrants and returners.
Key point. Blend levers. Use pay to compete, but buy time, mentoring and subject growth to keep people in post.
Retention that works: what the evidence supports
Synthesising NFER, Gatsby and sector studies, three clusters consistently correlate with lower attrition, especially in shortage subjects:
- Workload and time. Protect genuine non-contact blocks, simplify marking, reduce unnecessary data returns, and make behaviour escalation predictable.
- Professional growth. Fund subject-specific CPD, SKE and coached lesson study. Ensure mentors are trained, timetabled and accountable for a defined observation cycle.
- Flexible design. Normalise part-time and job-share, publish timetable principles up front, and advertise flexibility in every vacancy unless the curriculum truly forbids it.
Key point. Retention is operations. Line-manager routines and timetable rules are the levers that actually stick.
Why 2025 feels different from 2022–2023
After the pandemic, pent-up job moves drove high churn. By 2025, churn had eased as budgets tightened and some areas prepared for smaller cohorts, but subject shortages intensified. This explains why some schools reported fewer interviews while still lacking specialists. It is also why scatter-gun recruitment fairs disappoint, while targeted outreach to specific subject communities and returners yields better conversion.
Key point. Fewer adverts do not equal fewer gaps. The average vacancy has become harder to fill because it is more specialised.
A realistic 12-month plan for heads and trusts
Stabilise next term.
- Guarantee at least one protected non-contact block weekly for every teacher, audited by senior leaders.
- Publish a two-step behaviour script and monitor lesson removals by subject, not only by year group.
- Ring-fence mentor time for ECTs and new joiners.
Build a shortage-subject pipeline.
- Offer SKE and subject-specific CPD first in physics, maths, computing and chemistry.
- Appoint a named subject lead to coordinate outreach to ITT providers and subject associations.
- Use small, transparent micro-retention payments linked to defined contributions, for example leading Y11 intervention or mentoring two ECTs.
Make flexibility normal.
- Advertise part-time options by default.
- Use job-share templates and publish the rota model so candidates can picture the week.
- Track applications per vacancy before and after flexible advertising.
Key point. Treat retention like a programme with owners, budgets and metrics, not a slogan on a poster.
Data-viz quick win for governors and staff reps
Most stakeholders need a one-minute view. Create a single page that plots three series on one time axis for your school or trust: unfilled vacancies, new recruits and leavers. Annotate the dates of local interventions, bursary changes and timetable reforms so the discussion links actions to flows.
If your figures live in separate dashboards, combine images from the vacancy report and HR leavers chart into a single visual with one legend and two call-outs. A lightweight design tool such as Adobe Express is enough to label peaks, add a scale bar and export a clean PDF that does not reflow on mobile. If you brief several schools, combine images again to show comparable panels for each site on one sheet. The aim is to line up series and make causality easier to discuss.
Key point. A single, annotated page reduces cognitive load and helps non-specialists decide what is working.
What to monitor between now and next autumn
Three indicators will tell you whether 2025’s measures are working for your context:
- Subject-specific vacancy ratios. Track physics, maths and computing first. If these do not fall, generic policies are not landing.
- Two-year retention for ECTs. This is the canary for mentoring, workload and culture.
- Application-to-offer conversion. If incentives rise but conversion stalls, diagnosis should focus on role design, timetable flexibility and interview experience.
Key point. Shortage-subject vacancies, ECT retention and conversion rates give an early read on whether strategy beats drift.
Regional and system considerations
Shortages rarely distribute evenly. Rural and coastal schools face higher travel costs, weaker housing supply and fewer training partners. Here, multi-academy trusts can pool SKE provision, share specialist mentors, and run regional recruitment with guaranteed observation and coaching time. In urban areas where supply is denser, competition moves to culture and workflow. Schools that publish their timetable principles, feedback policy and behaviour model up front attract candidates who prefer clarity to slogans.
At system level, the £233 million package can drive near-term movement in ITT acceptances and returners, provided providers and schools align on placements and mentoring capacity. Parliamentary papers set out the bursary and scholarship levels, but implementation decides value for money: funding must translate into better early-career experiences, not only higher adverts.
Key point. Money recruits; mentoring and manageable timetables retain. The system has to deliver both sides to move the dial.
Communicating clearly with staff and parents
Clarity builds trust, especially when budgets are tight. Publish a short note each half-term explaining staffing moves: where posts remain unfilled, how you are covering them, and what medium-term steps are in train. Make it visual. For parent newsletters, combine images of the same chart type each half-term so progress is easy to compare. Avoid dashboard screenshots that force readers to hunt for the axis.
Key point. Honest, consistent updates reduce speculation and show that leadership is tackling causes, not only symptoms.
Conclusion
The teacher labour market in 2025 is not uniformly bleak, but it remains tight where it matters most. Evidence shows record vacancy rates early in the year, concentrated shortages in secondary STEM and roles linked to additional needs, and a mid-year cooling of job-ad activity as budgets tightened. New funding helps, particularly when targeted, yet the decisive moves are operational: protected time, specialist mentoring, SKE and flexible timetables. Schools that treat retention as logistics, measure flows rather than feelings and communicate with simple, annotated visuals make steady gains, even when the macro picture is noisy. If leaders embed those routines now, next autumn’s staffing meeting can be less about firefighting and more about curriculum.
FAQ
Are vacancies really at record levels?
Yes. NFER’s 2025 reporting shows unfilled vacancies at their highest since consistent records began, with reliance on non-specialists rising in disadvantaged areas.
What exactly is in the new funding?
The DfE announced a £233 million incentives package for 2025–26, including subject-targeted bursaries up to £29,000 and scholarships up to £31,000, plus retention incentives in shortage areas.
Why is physics repeatedly highlighted?
Because shortages are severe. One analysis reported that about a quarter of state secondaries lack a dedicated physics teacher, with non-specialists teaching large cohorts.
What is the fastest retention lever this term?
Protect staff time, standardise behaviour support and ensure mentors are trained and timetabled. Evidence links these moves to lower attrition, especially for early-career teachers.
How should we report progress to governors and parents?
Use a single annotated page showing vacancies, recruits and leavers. If your data lives in different tools, export and combine images so readers do not have to reconcile formats themselves.
